Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Headlines: Too Many QBs on the Dance Floor?

Brian: So just how many QB recruits are too many QB recruits? Yesterday came news that California QB recruit Chase Retting committed to BC. That seems to push the number of possible QBs on the 2010 roster to six.

Here are the QB prospects on the roster for the next two years.

2009
PlayerHometownHWScoutRivals
David ShinskieMount Carmel, PA6'5"220*****
Justin TuggleDuluth, GA6'3"204******
Codi BoekSacramento, CA6'3"215******
Michael MarscovetraOakland, NJ6'3"183****
Billy FlutieNatick, MA6'2"173****


2010
PlayerHometownHWScoutRivals
David ShinskieMount Carmel, PA6'5"220*****
Justin TuggleDuluth, GA6'3"204******
Codi BoekSacramento, CA6'3"215******
Michael MarscovetraOakland, NJ6'3"183****
Billy FlutieNatick, MA6'2"173****
Chase RettigSan Clemente, CA6'3"200*NR
Josh BordnerEldersburg, MD
6'4"185**NR


2011
PlayerHometownHWScoutRivals
David ShinskieMount Carmel, PA6'5"220*****
Justin TuggleDuluth, GA6'3"204******
Michael MarscovetraOakland, NJ6'3"183****
Chase RettigSan Clemente, CA6'3"200*NR
Josh BordnerEldersburg, MD
6'4"185**NR


Do you like the coaching staff's recruiting philosophy of throwing as many darts as possible at the wall and seeing what sticks? How many QB recruits/prospects are too many QB recruits/prospects?

Jeff: What's a reasonable number of QBs to have on the sidelines during a game? 3? I think 3 is a good number and from the looks of it, that's exactly what we'll have this coming season. Flutie is not competing for the starting QB job and will be a receiver/utility man again. Tuggle and Shinskie will likely be tabbed the starter then Boek will either be the #2 or #3 option at QB or be somewhere else on the depth chart. If Boek falls back to fullback, Marscovetra will be the third string, otherwise he'll redshirt for this season. So right there you're quickly down to only 3 quarterbacks.

The following year, maybe someone in the mix transfers out, get injured, redshirts, or becomes ineligible for another reason so I think once again in 2010 we'll have 3 quarterbacks on the sidelines.

If the quarterback position is won and handled by someone with reasonable effectiveness this year, you can bank on both Rettig and Bordner - if they follow through on their verbal commitment - to redshirt. Look for Spaziani to bring back some of the Tom O'Brien philosophy of redshirting plenty of freshman and playing a lot of fifth-year seniors down the line. Watching Montel Harris and Josh Haden explode onto the scene last year was fun and hopefully we'll get to see Shinskie/Tuggle have similar success in their first season at QB. But down the road, I expect things to be more like the TOB years where players started for maybe 3 of their 5 years on campus, not 4 of 4.

But to answer your second question, we are getting close to having too many quarterbacks, but right now we have not yet crossed that line.

Brian: I think we have too many QBs on the roster. Like you said, let's put Billy Flutie to the side for a moment and consider Shinskie, Tuggle and Boek for this upcoming season. Let's also adopt your suggestion to redshirt Marscovetra in 2009 and Rettig and Bordner in 2010.

Even by doing this, there is no guarantee that either Rettig or Bordner will ever see the field under center until they are juniors. Shinskie and Tuggle will have four full years from 2009-2012 to vie for the starting job:

2009: Shinskie, Tuggle, Boek
2010: Shinskie, Tuggle, Boek
2011: Shinskie, Tuggle, Marscovetra
2012: Shinskie, Tuggle, Marscovetra
2013: Marscovetra, Border, Rettig
2014: Border, Rettig

As you suggest, you certainly need an insurance policy for QB given injuries, transfers, and academic ineligibility. But at what cost? The tradeoff is that a QB recruit could easily perform the same exercise I just did and project out who is vying for the starting position over the next 4-6 years. Their conclusion could be that the Eagles QB position is way too crowded. I know that this wasn't a publicly stated reason for Boisture's decommitment, but you have to consider this to be a reason for recruits to think twice about signing with the Eagles as a QB prospect.

I'm slightly uncomfortable with so many QBs on the roster right now, but I'll give Spaziani and the coaching staff the benefit of the doubt that the math will work out for both the program and these kids.

9 comments:

conlonc said...

IMO, most QB recruits, while thinking positively about starting 3+ seasons, are perfectly fine with the plan being two years as a starter. Even in the top programs, only the best of the best get more than 2 years to start and even then others get it because of injury or a lost season.

QB recruits should worry less about projected playing time 4-5 years down the road than they should about working hard, learning the offense, becoming a leader, and staying healthy.

Lally said...

About 3 weeks ago, you would've looked at the 2009/2010 QB situation and said "we need more QBs." So I don't know how you can say we have too many now.

Flutie isn't a QB. Period. Boek has two more years and honestly may be at QB now more because in the Spring we didn't have options instead of any other reason. Marscoverta was choosing between us and Salve Regina, and was a Logan project, so who knows if he can get on the field under Tranq and Spaz. Tuggle is still young, and Shinskie hasn't thrown a ball in six years. For next year, it's really about throwing everyone up at the wall and seeing who sticks.

Going forward, no matter how good a recruit is, you need to take 1/2 QBs a class. Injuries happen. Kids get homesick. "The Next Big Thing" never pans out. You never know what the future holds for you. And also, limiting your QB recruiting is why we're in the situation we're in now.

After Crane, the only QB TOB brought in was Ross Applegate. When Jags got here, there was a serious drop off on the depth chart. He and Logan scrambled to fill the gaps and did a less than stellar job. Things could be a little better had either of the past staff done their job right. So for the next year or so, things look a little rocky behind center.

BCMike said...

Codi won't be on the roster in 2011, he's a red-shirt Junior, IIRC.

Brian said...

Fixed, thanks.

I think there are two schools of thought here, each with valid arguments.

In one corner, is the traditional, conlonc approved system where college football QBs plan on starting only their last two years. See: Matt Ryan (don't get me started on TOB's decision to have Porter start over Ryan).

In the other corner, increasingly I think programs are letting a QB learn on their feet and potentially start all 4 years. See: HD's latest QB rankings ... her top QBs in the ACC are largely all QBs that have started every year they've been in the program - Russell Wilson, Lewis, Skinner. McCoy and Bradford are other examples of successful QBs that started as a freshman.

Like I said each system has a valid argument, but I seem to lean towards the 4 year system (if they are good, let them play) instead of the succession plan of letting QBs rotate into the starting role starting their junior season.

The Self-Proclaimed, Short-Term Expert said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
conlonc said...

Brian: sounds like you subscribe to the Chris Cooley method (from his MMQB article - replacing Peter King for the week):

"I think all the talk about making young quarterbacks wait their turn and learn before they play is B.S. The best way to get better at something is by doing it, so if they're ready to play, let 'em play. I know teams are very considerate about a player's psyche, but if a quarterback can't handle the scrutiny of throwing a pick in his first season, how is he going to handle it throughout his career? Might as well find out."

I have nothing against this philosophy. Nothing at all. If the QB is better, then he should play. Period. You win the job it's yours.

My point was more about the expectations of a recruit coming in. Yes, he should bust his hump to compete for the starting job, but 18 year olds should not focus on the depth chart as much as becoming a man, working hard, staying healthy, learning the offense, etc. I don't want a QB who doesn't want to start all 4 years! But I do want a guy who has realistic expectations to go along with his lofty goals. There's a difference.

Brian said...

Yes, I subscribe to the Chris Cooley school of thought. At least in the past couple of years, I can think of many more examples of QBs that have excelled after playing all 4 years than I can think of examples of QBs that wait their turn and play their last 2 years. (Granted, there are many examples on either side of the argument).

I do agree that QB recruits should be busting their humps and not solely focused on the depth chart before they even join the team. But at the same time these are young kids and if a program is actively going after more and more QB prospects, some doubt has to creep into the back of your mind as to how committed the program is to having you compete for the starting job. IMO.

conlonc said...

On the same note, I saw VT just signed another RB/LB today. I keep wondering why all these solid RB commits keep going there, only to be in line behind Darren Evans, Ryan Williams, et al. Unlike QB, though, RB is a position where backups get more PT and attention. Of course USC has pulled it off well in both regards.

The one thing I will say is that the guy who thinks he will start for 4 years (or at least get a fair shot), most likely thinks that he should be able to beat out whoever his competition may be. Therefore, the number of QB's he's competing against should be irrelevent. You're right, the flexibility of the program to start a young gun should be a consideration. It just seems I put it slightly lower on the list of considerations than you do. I'm not really tapped into 18 year old brains, so while I think it shouldn't be high on the list, it very well might be.

This is a rare situation we've been in this year. When was the last time we didn't go into a season knowing full well (or being VERY certain) who our QB would be? The controversy Ryan created was only because he came in So. year after some injuries/struggles and played extremely well, only to be thrown back to the bench. Other than that - there haven't been many controversies at BC about younger guys - or even different guys - getting PT. OK, I'm just rambling now.

BC Billy 1979 said...

Its hard to consider Billy Flutie as a viable QB. If he had the ability , he would have shown up for a few series earlier in his career.