Over/Under: 09 College Football Preview SEC

Brian: Next up on our preview of the BCS conferences is the $2.25 billion dollar industry known as the S-E-C.

Our previous BCS conference previews: Pac 10, Big XII, Big Ten, Big East

For reference, here is a composite prediction of how the experts think God's Conference will play out this season:

SEC East
1. Florida
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Kentucky

SEC West
1. Alabama
2. Louisiana State
3. Mississippi
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi State


First up, Over/Under - 7 regular season wins for South Carolina

Brian: I simply don’t see things getting any better for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks this season. Last season’s 7 regular season wins seems to be a bit of a ceiling for South Carolina. The non-conference schedule doesn’t do South Carolina any favors with two ACC programs book-ending the season along with Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State. I wouldn’t expect a repeat of South Carolina’s 34-0 beatdown of NC State to start the season, especially with this year’s tilt at Carter-Finley Stadium and even with Clemson at home, I see the Tigers continuing their recent dominance over their intra-state rivals. Assuming that South Carolina goes 2-2 out of conference, I would need them then to go 5-3 in conference just to push and 6-2 for the over. Last season’s four SEC wins came at Ole Miss and Kentucky and at home vs. Tennessee and Arkansas. This season they have to travel to Knoxville and Fayetteville, and both Tennessee and Arkansas should be vastly improved from a season ago. Ole Miss will be better. I don’t see USC going any better than 2-2 in those games. Tack on losses at Alabama, at Georgia, Florida. I’m fairly confident in the under (-200) here. Maybe, maybe South Carolina gets to 6 wins and goes bowling, but that’s about it this season. Yes, Spurrier will get more consistent quarterback play from sophomore Stephen Garcia, but there are still lots of question marks on the offensive line – an O-line that gave up the second most sacks in the SEC last season. Take the under here for easy money.

Jeff: This is my local team you are talking about, Brian, and you hit the nail on the head. The Gamecocks will NOT win more than 7 games. Take the under (-200) here and the worst you'll do is get your money back at the end of the season. I have talked to people who have attended some of their practices and they say USC look worse than last year. Not only does Smelley continue to get into off the field issues but they also play in an extremely tough division. If they lose to NC State to start the season, it will be tough for the Gamecocks to go bowling again.


Over/Under - 7 regular season wins for Tennessee

Jeff: I like Tennessee to bounce back this year, make some noise in the SEC and get some wins against ranked opponents this year. But as far as their prospect of getting to 8 wins, I don't like it. Tennessee doesn't play any major powers out of conference but UCLA could knock them off and depending on how things go, Memphis could prove to be a tough game. In SEC play they unfortunately have to travel to Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss. That's 3 preseason Top 10 teams on the road. What a brutal schedule. Since I have to make a pick here I'll take the under (-165) but if we were playing with real money I'd stay away from this bet entirely.

Brian: This is a tough call as there are a ton of unknowns going into the beginning of the Lane Kiffin era in Knoxville. I'm fairly certain the Vols will improve on last year's 5-7 record but by just how many games is the million dollar question. The bright spots for the Volunteers will be All-American junior safety Eric Berry. The weaknesses will be in the linebacking corps and in the offensive skill positions. But the Tennessee offense can't possibly be worse than it was last year. Giving a cursory glance over the Vol schedule, I would predict a 7-5, 4-4 SEC season for Kiffin in his first year. Wins in non-conference play against Western Kentucky, Memphis and Ohio, and conference wins over Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina and Auburn. But since pushing is unmanly, I'll hesitantly take the under (-165) here and predict that either South Carolina or Auburn take care of the Vols in Knoxville. 6-6, 3-5 in the SEC in Kiffin's first season, and the Vols return to the postseason.


Over/Under - 7 1/2 regular season wins for Auburn

Brian: I have no doubt that Auburn will turn it around eventually, but I think the faithful on the Plains can’t expect monumental change to come in one season. And turning a 5-7, 2-6 season into an 8-4, 5-3 season in a single year is what I would consider monumental change. I went to an Auburn game last season right when the wheels were starting to fall off the Tommy Tuberville train, and Auburn dropped 6 of their last 7 games to end the season with their only win coming against I-AA Tennessee-Martin. Chizik will face the same sorts of problems that led to Tuberville’s departure – trying to fit a square peg (a spread offense) into a round hole (players traditionally recruited to run the power-I). It might get better with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, but his new system will take time to develop. Quarterback is equally as much of a question, with Chris Todd and Kodi Burns stinking up the joint last season (I ended up seeing both in the 25-22 loss to Arkansas). Throw in Neil Caudle and much like the Eagles, I’m not sure we’ll have a Tiger starting QB named until very late in August. To expect 8 or more wins for the Tigers this season is simply too many. Three non-conference gimmes (Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Furman) and a home game against Kentucky seem to be the only locks for Ws this season. Auburn has a tough non-conference opponent in West Virginia coming to Jordan-Hare on September 19, and could foreseeably go 0-4 on the road in the SEC this season (Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia). Throw in tough home games against Alabama and Ole Miss, and the under (-220) seems to be the EASY, easy choice for Auburn this season.

Jeff: Predicting that Auburn will win 8 games this season is a tough thing to do. Tough even though I do expect significant improvement over last season with the Tigers getting back to a bowl game this year. Ole Miss and Alabama are both ranked high entering the season in the SEC West and they also travel to Athens and Morgantown in out of conference play. I see a lot of wins on Auburn's schedule to get them to the six they need for bowl eligibility but to predict 8+ is just impossible given their incredible struggles last season. Under (-220).


Over/Under - 8 1/2 regular season wins for Georgia

Jeff: Georgia will most likely go 6-2 in SEC play this year. But the Bulldogs have, by far, one of the most interesting non-conference schedules of any BCS team this year. Because of that tough non-conference schedule, UGA aren't a lock to reach 9 or 10 wins and go over. Among their games against Oklahoma State, Arizona State and Georgia Tech, will they go 3-0, 2-1, 1-2??? Given that Georgia will be breaking in a new quarterback, a new running back, and that crazy non-conference schedule ... I think you have to take the under here (-110) and expect Georgia to lose a game or two along the way to a team they should normally beat.

Brian: You are right Jeff. In predicting this line, the focus should be on Georgia's non-conference schedule. I have to give the Bulldogs credit though. After spending years in the friendly confines of the Peach state, snacking on I-AAs and Sunbelt teams between the hedges, UGA went out and scheduled a damn fine slate of non-conference games this season. So good, in fact, that is considered by some to be one of the toughest schedules in the BCS. The Bulldogs start the season in Stillwater against a top 25 squad in Oklahoma State. The Bulldogs also scheduled Arizona State, and go to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech at the end of the season. The problem, as you alluded to, is that Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno aren't walking through that door. A year ago, Georgia was a mythical national championship contender. A 10-3, 6-2 SEC finish was actually a disappointment for Bulldog nation. If the Athens faithful thought 10 wins was a disappointment last season, they aren't going to like what they get from UGA this season. I'll predict that Georgia loses at least 2 of their 4 non-conference games (in all liklihood at Oklahoma State and at Georgia Tech). In addition, I'll predict the Bulldogs go 6-2 at best in SEC play with losses to Florida (yes, again) and LSU. There are plenty of other trap games on the sched this year including September 19 at Arkansas (who UGA didn't face last season) and October 10 at Tennessee. Go with the under (-110) here. Georgia won't go any better than 8-4 this season.


Over/Under - 8 1/2 regular season wins for LSU

Brian: This is an extremely interesting line. An over here would mean a two game improvement from last season’s 3-5 SEC finish. I’ll assume for a moment that LSU coasts through their non-conference schedule of UL Lafayette, Tulane, Louisiana Tech and a road trip to Seattle (Washington) and gets to 4-0 just as they did last year. So then the Tigers have to turn two SEC losses in 2008 to two wins in 2009. Only two of LSU’s five SEC losses came on the road, and it’s questionable whether the Tigers can take down Florida at home this season. Let’s assume that LSU will turn the Arkansas game from a loss to a win, which leaves me looking for one more SEC W. The most likely candidates then are the road trips to Athens or Tuscaloosa, as I expect both Georgia and Alabama to take a bit of a step back this season. Not to mention the Alabama game was lost in overtime last season. Overall, I like LSU’s chances to get back on track this season, win at least 9 games and be in the running to take the SEC West crown after a one-year hiatus from being unstoppable. Go with the over here (+100) and expect LSU to challenge Ole Miss and Alabama for the West division crown.

Jeff: Brian finds this line fascinating while I find it easy money. Like he said, LSU should go 4-0 in non-conference play so 5-3 in the SEC would get the Tigers to 9-3. LSU was down last year but when you have the opportunity to make money off a team that has two recent national championships by only winning 9 games, you take it!! OVER OVER OVER (+100) and don't look back.


Over/Under - 9 regular season wins for Ole Miss

Jeff: As indicated by our preliminary preseason blogpoll ballot, we are high on Ole Miss this season. Even though I have the Rebels lower in my blogpoll ballot than Brian, there is no way this team wins 8 games or less this year. Over (-130).

Brian: Yes, we are high on the Rebels, but with good reason. The Rebels finished last season on a 6 game winning streak, including wins at LSU and vs. Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Junior QB and Texas transfer Jevan Snead looks poised to have another outstanding year under center should the offensive line gel. Whether right or wrong, preseason polls are becoming as much about who you play as they are about the talent you return. Mississippi's 2009 schedule is THE weakest in the SEC and one of these weakest for a BCS conference team (77 of 120 to be specific, according to Phil Steele). Only my Northwestern (85) and Rutgers (106) have a weaker preseason strength of schedule. Two I-AA teams (SE Louisiana and Northern Arizona), two 'meh' Conference-USA teams (at Memphis and UAB), and two of their toughest SEC West opponents have to come to Oxford (Alabama and LSU). Not to mention Ole Miss misses both Florida and Georgia and instead gets Tennessee, South Carolina and Tennessee from the other side of the conference. To win less than 9 wins this season would be a HUGE disappointment. Some might point to last year's preseason media darlings like Georgia or Clemson and say the same fate awaits Mississippi this season, but I just don't see it. The talent is there and the schedule so weak that Ole Miss should be playing in their first SEC Championship Game come December. Over (-130).


Over/Under - 9 1/2 regular season wins for Alabama

Brian: Much like the LSU line, I find the Bama line extremely interesting this year. Alabama benefits greatly from missing both Florida and Georgia from the other side of the conference this season. I’m not going to expect a repeat of last season’s 12-0 start, especially with the departure of John Parker Wilson and questions on the offensive line. Still, the Bama defense should be filthy with nine of twelve starters back in 2009. For me, this line comes down to whether I think Alabama can win at least one of their three games against marquee opponents this season, including the Chick-Fil-A College Kickoff against Virginia Tech in Atlanta, a road trip to Oxford against Ole Miss in October, and a November 7 home date against LSU. Not only will they have to take 1 of those 3 games, but they’ll also have to avoid getting tripped up against the rest of the SEC and in non-conference play. If there is anything we learned from recent history, it’s that even the games against FIU, North Texas and Chattanooga aren’t 100% gimmes (cough: UL-Monroe). A lot of magazines and prognosticators have Bama in their preseason top 5, but for some reason I’m higher on Ole Miss or LSU’s chances to win the SEC West this season. I’ll take the under (-175) assuming that a 9-3 season or worse is much more likely than 10-2 or better.

Jeff: I expect Alabama to regress from last year, at least in terms of total number of wins. Despite losing the SEC Championship and the Sugar Bowl, Alabama still won 12 games last year in a perfect regular season campaign. This year, however, there is no way the Tide get to twelve wins again. Since I'm an ACC guy, I'll protect the shield and count the Virginia Tech game as a loss for them. But once conference play hits, the good news, as Brian points out, is that Alabama misses both Florida and Georgia from the SEC East. So getting to 10 wins mostly comes down to splitting the LSU and Ole Miss games. I like their odds of doing that so without any other missteps in conference play they would get to 10-2. But, this is the SEC so I feel sure someone will trip them up this year now that they have a huge target on their backs. An upset loss in the SEC brings them back down to 9-3. But then again, Brian took the under here and I have not gone back on my never failing logic of Brian typically being wrong with these things and I will take the OVER (+125)!!!


Last one, Over/Under - 11 regular season wins for Florida

Jeff: Is it more likely that Florida will win them all or lose two games? I am going to say that it is more likely that the fighting Tim Tebows run the table than lose two game even though the most likely scenario is that they lose one game again and push with 11 wins. Over (-120).

Brian: While I won't discount the possibility of a loss or two on the Gators schedule this season (a la 31-30 at home vs. Ole Miss last season), you simply can't ignore the facts here.

1. The Gators are loaded with talent, not only on offense but more importantly, on the defensive side of the ball. Every defensive member of the Gator's two-deep roster returns, and that was a defense that ranked first in the SEC for scoring defense. Yikes.
2. The schedule is manageable, particularly in non-conference play where all four of their games are at home (Charleston Southern, Troy, FIU, Florida State). The Gators also miss Alabama and Ole Miss this season from the SEC West.

There are definitely trap games on the schedule, including Arkansas October 17 and Florida State on November 28, but until proven otherwise, the champs are still the champs. Take the over (-120) and expect to see the Gators in both the SEC Championship Game and BCS Championship.


No lines on Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, or Arkansas.


Your thoughts?

Over/Under: 09 College Football Preview Big East

Brian: Next up on our preview of the BCS conferences is the Big East. Yeah, I don't miss it that much either.

Our previous BCS conference previews: Pac 10, Big XII, Big Ten

For reference, here is a composite prediction of how the experts think the Big East will shake down this season:

1. West Virginia
2. Pittsburgh
3. Rutgers
4. Cincinnati
5. South Florida
6. Connecticut
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse

After last season where Cincinnati came out of left field and took home their first Big East football championship, West Virginia is back on top of the preseason rankings. But do Bill Stewart and the Mountaineers have enough pieces left post-White to reclaim their stranglehold on the Big East crown?

Good things are expected of Rutgers and Pittsburgh, while looks like Connecticut will be counting down the days to Midnight Madness. The plane has officially crashed into the Kragthorpe mountain at Louisville, while Syracuse's preseason predictions from every major college football prognosticator is consistent: unanimous suckage. More the same from the Orange?

The most important question though is who will win the conference and take their Orange Bowl Hokie beatdown in stride?



First up, Over/Under – 6 1/2 regular season wins for Connecticut

Brian: Not much is expected of Connecticut in the Big East this year, which is music to my ears. Not only are expectations low for the Huskies this season in conference, but UConn didn’t do themselves any favors this year with their non-conference schedule. Right now, I see 3-4 guaranteed wins (at Ohio, Rhode Island, Syracuse, Louisville) but after that, I’m struggling to scrounge up some more wins for Edsall’s crew. A home game against North Carolina and trips to Baylor and Notre Dame look like losses to me at this point. UConn has more home games than road games in the Big East this season, which is a plus, but the downside is that they have to travel to three of the best teams in the Big East (including defending champs Cincinnati, West Virginia and Pittsburgh). Even if they manage to steal one of these Big East games on the road, it’s not a given that they can take care of both Rutgers or South Florida at home. I have the Huskies going 2-3 out of conference and as a “best, best case scenario” 4-3 in the Big East. More realistically it will be 3-4 or 2-5 in the Big East, so I’ll confidently go with the under here (-200) and not make too much cash on this one.

Jeff: The Huskies, somewhat similar to BC but on a much smaller stage, have surpassed expectations year after year and Randy Edsall is a good coach so I am going over (+160) here.


Over/Under – 7 1/2 regular season wins for Pittsburgh

Jeff: Pitt has a pretty legitimate non-conference schedule this year where they face NC State, Notre Dame, MAC Champion Buffalo and Navy. They might end up being slight favorites in all four of those so I think 3-1 is a most likely scenario. Add in one gimme against Youngstown State and they go 4-1 out of conference. From there they only need to win 4 Big East games which for a team in the preseason top 25, is not asking much. You should take the over (-165) here with reasonable confidence because even if they lose 2 OOC games they can still easily win 5 in conference.

Brian: Even though Pitt has creeped in to some preseason Top 25 polls, I’m not sold. You only have to look at our preseason blogpoll ballot from last season to caution you to use preseason polls as an indicator of future success. Cough. Auburn. Cough, cough. Clemson.

The Panthers enter the fifth season under head coach Dave Wannstedt, but the results have been mixed at best (25-23). Pittsburgh goes into this season with plenty of question marks on offense, including quarterback and running back (with the loss of LeSean McCoy), as well as breaking in a new offensive coordinator. Given all the question marks on offense, I have to expect a bit of a drop off from last season’s 9 game win total. The Panthers will have time to get off to a fast start with wins over Youngstown State and Buffalo, but Navy should at least give the Panthers a game, and I expect Pitt’s road trip to Raleigh to be an unsuccessful one. That’s probably 3 wins, and I would need 5 to go over. I’ll give Pitt the benefit of the doubt against Louisville, Connecticut, Rutgers and Syracuse, but the Panthers finish the season with Notre Dame, at West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl and vs. Cincinnati. I think this one will come down to the October 24 game against perennial underachiever South Florida. Win that game and the Panthers go over. Lose and I think it will be a 7-5, 4-3 season for Pitt. The difference I think will be South Florida’s offense under senior Matt Grothe, so I’ll take the under (+135), although I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitt gets to 8. This one is a toss up in my mind.


Over/Under – 8 regular season wins for South Florida

Brian: Speaking of South Florida ... Bull talent returns in the form of senior QB Matt Grothe and All-American DE George Selvie. While the talent is certainly there, it’s hard to get too excited about a team that started off 6-1 last season only to limp to a 1-4 regular season finish. That 1-4 mark down the stretch included a 24-20 loss at punch-less Louisville. The Bulls will get out of the gate at 3-0 with wins over Wofford, at Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern, but that will be counterbalanced with two losses at Florida State and at home to Miami Fla (but props to USF for scheduling some tough, in-state ACC competition). To go over, that would mean USF would nearly run the table in the Big East, and I just don’t see that happening. Although they are both home games, I’m predicting that both Cincinnati and West Virginia will take care of South Florida, and a trip to Rutgers in mid-November could just as easily be a loss (the Scarlet Knights handed the Bulls a 49-16 beat down in Tampa a year ago). A push would not surprise me, but I think it’s more likely that USF goes 4-3 (or worse) in conference rather than 5-2 so I’ll take the under (-120).

Jeff: You talked about the two high profile players returning to South Florida this season, but you took the under? Last season was a disappointment for the team which could've easily won the Big East in a year when WVU tripped up a little. But now the great players are gone at WVU and the league is theirs for the taking once again. I'm going to put the Miami and FSU games down as losses even though there's a chance they could steal one of those games. Then like you said all they need to do is go 5-2 in the Big LEAST. USF may very well win the league this year so why wouldn't you take them to go 6-1 or 5-2. I like the over (-110) here and will be happy to take your money.


Over/Under – 8 regular season wins for Rutgers

Jeff: Rutgers has an interesting line here at 8 when they have 4 gimmes in non-conference play. Then let's say they should be able to beat Syracuse and Louisville this year and lose at West Virginia and Maryland. This leaves them 6-2 with four toss-up type games left. But since I am more of a Rutgers hater than a Rutgers fan, I going to go ahead and put their season opener against Cincinnati down as a loss leaving them 6-3 with three toss-ups left. Those remaining games are against better coached teams - that's right - better coached teams in UConn, South Florida, and Pitt. I like taking the under especially when it's +160. The worst I'll do on this one is push.

Brian: Yes, Rutgers is hot, coming off finishing last season with 7 straight wins including stopping an equally hot NC State team in the Pizza Bowl. However, gone are Mike Teel and Kenny Britt, two of the most prolific offensive players in Rutgers history. There are plenty of questions on offense, including who will start under center. The front runner, fifth year senior Domenic Natale, threw for a whopping 36 yards last season (but hey, I guess that is 36 more yards that BC quarterbacks threw for last season). Offensive questions aside, Rutgers might have the biggest joke of a 12-game football schedule in the history of a BCS conference program. Seriously. Out of conference superpowers Howard, Florida International and Texas Southern visit Rutgers Stadium, and the Scarlet Knights also travel to Maryland and Army. I don’t think much of the Terps chances this season, so that’s 5-0. Easy. From there, a 4-3 finish in the Big East is more than possible, as Rutgers’ toughest Big East opponents all come to Piscataway – Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, South Florida and West Virginia. Three trips to Big East bottom feeders Syracuse, Louisville and Connecticut should be three more Ws, and I’ll easily give 1 of 4 of their Big East home games to RU for their 9th win. There’s a reason the over is -230 here, since I’m sure you could find I-AA teams that have a tougher SOS than Rutgers. Rutgers easily goes 9-3 or 10-2 so take the over (-230), but don’t expect me to have Rutgers anywhere near my Top 25 blogpoll ballot, EVEN if they finish 10-2. I’m not kidding. Why reward a team for beating 5 crappy non-conference teams and going 5-2 in the Big East?


Last one, Over/Under – 8 1/2 regular season wins for West Virginia

Brian: Even with Pat White gone, the Mountaineers should coast to either 6-1 or 7-0 to start the season with wins over Liberty, Syracuse, Marshall, Connecticut, Auburn and one of East Carolina/Colorado at home. The second half of the season should determine whether West Virginia can regain the Big East title, as they travel to South Florida, Cincinnati and Rutgers, and play Pittsburgh and Louisville at home. I like WVU to go no worse than 3-2 in those games and if I had to chose, I’d give them Ws over South Florida, Louisville and Pittsburgh. That’s 9 including 5 Big East wins. Go with the over here (-110), but an under with the Mountaineers finishing 8-4 would not surprise me. Anything less than 8 wins for Bill Stewart and the Mountaineers, though, and I would be SHOCKED!

Jeff: I very much disagree that Auburn is a win for West Virginia. Sure Auburn had a tough year last year but they will bounce back while the Mountaineers have slid. Also, East Carolina is a legitimate threat and Colorado is another improving team. So what you see as 6-1 at worst I see as 5-2 at best. Then in the rest of their Big East play, West Virginia is likely to split the games games against Pittsburgh, South Florida, Rutgers and Cincinnati. I'm already up to four losses for the Mountaineers. Not to mention West Virginia is also the team with a target on their back in the Big East so you never know if another team will take the opportunity to kick them while they're down and provide an upset. Under (-120).


Brian: Surprisingly, no line on this site for Cincinnati, as well as - more predictably - no lines for Louisville and Syracuse. And looking back, Jeff and I disagreed on every Big East team this year. Should have labeled this segment good cop / bad cop.

Over/Under: 09 College Football Preview Big Ten

Brian: Next up on our preview of the BCS conferences is the Big Ten, the redheaded stepchild of BCS football conferences that I am forced to show a mild interest in since I'm attending Northwestern this year.

Our previous BCS conference previews: Pac 10, Big XII

For reference, here is a composite prediction of how the experts think the Big Ten will shake down this season:

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa
5. Illinois
6. Michigan
7. Wisconsin
8. Northwestern
9. Minnesota
10. Purdue
11. Indiana

Who will emerge from the Big Ten this season, only to get their annual beatdown at the hands of USC in the Rose Bowl or the champion of God's Conference in the BCS National Championship game? Who will be this year's Daniel Murray, the Hawkeyes field goal kicker that put the rest of college football out of their misery by preventing a third straight Big Ten slaughter in the BCS National Championship game?



First up, Over/Under – 6 regular season wins for Michigan

Brian: Wow. How the mighty have fallen. I don’t think Wolverine fans can be too thrilled with an over/under line set at a mediocre 6-6. Hopefully for Michigan fans, though, the bottom fell out with last season’s 3-9, 2-6 Big Ten debacle. That 3-9 record included going 1-3 out of conference, losing to Utah at home in the opener, getting beat up in South Bend 35-17 and getting shocked by a 2-6 MAC team. At home. In front of 100,000+. So how does Rich Rodriguez and bump up the win total by 4 games from a year ago? Water down the out of conference schedule! UM has done precisely that this season. This year, Michigan gets two directional Michigan teams (and not the best of the three in Central Michigan), Notre Dame and I-AA Delaware State – all in the Big House. Last year’s Toledo game gives me pause, but let’s say for sake of argument that Michigan comes out of the out of conference portion of their schedule at a healthy 3-1.

That leaves me looking for 4 wins on their Big Ten sched … which I just can’t do. I can’t. Their Big Ten road sched is formidable, with the Wolverines having to travel to Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. All likely losses. At home in Big Ten play I see Michigan going 2-2, with wins over Indiana and Purdue, and losses to Penn State and Ohio State (yet again). (It certainly doesn’t help Michigan that they miss both Minnesota and Northwestern this season. Well, at least Minnesota. I actually expect Northwestern to be competitive this season. But I digress.) That gets me to 5-7 in a best case scenario. Even with an eight game home schedule, I only see UM winning 5 games at most, and losing all of their road contests. I will go with the under here (+165) with a fair degree of confidence, although it wouldn’t shock me if Michigan plays in a bowl and pushes on this line.

Jeff: It's very tempting to push this one but I will not. I am going over here. Michigan can go 4-0 in out of conference play. If they do, they easily go over. Michigan could go 2-2 on the road in the Big Ten. If they do they easily go over. Finally, Michigan could easily go 3-1 on the road in the Big Ten. If they do any one of these three things they cover the over. I see 7-5 for Michigan because they have plenty of toss up games on their schedule and they could even get to 8 or 9 wins. Over (-185).


Over/Under – 7 1/2 regular season wins for Illinois

Jeff: Illinois plays an interesting out of conference schedule where they only have one guaranteed win in Illinois State. Missouri, Fresno State and Cincinnati are all potential losses but it's here that determines where you go with this pick. If Illinois goes 4-0 in non-conference play then 8 wins seems to be a very strong pick if not a done deal. But Cincinnati won the Big East and Missouri won the Big XII North last year so would saying Illinois goes 4-0 out of conference be a little aggressive? No. This is not 2008 we're talking about and I do think 4-0 for Illinois in non-conference play is how things will shake out. It is not an extremely confident pick but I am going OVER (-150) for Illinois.

Brian: Hard to predict 8 or more wins for an Illinois team that went 5-7 a year ago, missing out on going bowling. It’s also hard to believe this is the same team that two years ago made a Rose Bowl appearance (and subsequently got dismantled by USC as the Illini had no business being in that game). The Illini will certainly put up some points with QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn (67 catches, 1,000+ yards) leading the way. But arguably the defense will be worse than it was last year. The schedule this year is fairly front loaded. Illinois starts with the Arch Rivalry against Missouri in St. Louis, where Missouri has won the last 4 and leads the all-time series 15-7. (No wonder this series has been discontinued after 2010!). If Illinois can’t escape St. Louis with a W, they are likely staring down 1-4 by mid-October with losses at Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. From there on out, Illinois would have to run the table and I just don’t see that happening with home games against Michigan, Northwestern and Fresno State, and a late November road trip to Big East champion Cincinnati. I have to believe they’ll lose 1 if not 2 of those games down the stretch. Most experts have the Illini at 2, 3 or 4 in the final Big Ten standings this season, but I just don’t see the reasons for such optimism. After all, this is the same team that lost three straight down the stretch to Western Michigan, Ohio State and at Northwestern to miss out on the postseason. And it’s not like Ron Zook has an amazing track record in his first four years in Champaign (18-30). Therefore, I’ll confidently go with the under (+120) here. Sure, they’ll be improvement, but I think improvement will have to come in the form of 7-5 or 6-6, not 8-4 or 9-3.


Over/Under – 8 regular season wins for Iowa

Brian: Even with the departures of running back Shonn Greene and DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul, much of the pieces on a team that went 8-4, 5-3 Big Ten a year ago return. The biggest hurdle this season will be the Big Ten schedule. For some odd reason, the Hawkeyes have to go back to East Lansing for a second straight year. Much like my diagnosis for Michigan, the Hawkeyes Big Ten road schedule isn’t doing them any favors. Iowa’s Big Ten road schedule is absolutely brutal, with stops in State College, Madison, East Lansing (again) and Columbus. I know the Hawkeyes like to boast that they were 12 points away from an undefeated season last year, but 3 of those 4 losses came on the road. And this season’s road sched is much more daunting. Off their Big Ten schedule this year are Purdue and Illinois in favor of Ohio State and Michigan. This is probably a wash, with the Hawkeyes going 1-1 against Purdue/Illinois in 2008 and likely going 1-1 against Ohio State/Michigan in 2009. Iowa should go 4-0 out of conference with wins over I-AA Northern Iowa, Arizona, Arkansas State and at Iowa State, but I’m struggling to get Iowa to 5-3 in the Big Ten this year to go with the over. I’ll hesitantly take the under (+100) here, banking on Iowa losing their four Big Ten road games (Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State) and banking on either Arizona or Northwestern to pull off the upset on the road. 7-5, 3-5 for the Hawkeyes this season. Go with the under (-130).

Jeff: Iowa won 8 games last year and a lot of those were after Shonn Greene emerged as a beast of a running back. Greene is gone this year though and Iowa has 2 BCS conference teams on their schedule out of conference so there is really no way in your right mind that you would put some of your hard earned money on Iowa to win at least 9 games. No way. Under (-130).


Over/Under – 8 regular season wins for Michigan State

Jeff: Michigan State is one of the top three teams in the conference and avoids one of the other top three, Ohio State, on their conference schedule this year. Then, they don't play any BCS conference teams out of conference, however they do play Notre Dame. Why would you not take the over with Michigan State!!?? Especially at +140, this is a no-brainer. Michigan State would have to lose to Notre Dame and go only 4-4 in conference to not at least push. I very much like the over (+140) when it comes to Michigan State this year and I do expect them to beat Notre Dame as well.

Brian: Over. Over. Over. I have Michigan State winning no less than 9 games this season. The Spartans will likely go 4-0 out of conference with wins over Montana State in the opener, Central and Western Michigan and at Notre Dame. From there, 5-3 in conference is definitely possible with very winnable games against the likes of Michigan, Northwestern, and Iowa at home, and Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota on the road. Missing Ohio State on the schedule this year certainly helps matters out for Mark Dantonio and MSU. It won’t come easy, and I would not be surprised if Michigan State pushes at 8, but I don’t see any red flags preseason that would lead me to believe the Spartans can’t at least reproduce last season’s 9 game regular season win total. I usually don't say this, but go with what Jeff said on this one. Go with the over (+140).


Over/Under – 8 regular season wins for Wisconsin

Brian: This one has to be the toughest line of any of the Big Ten team’s lines. I am definitely not sold on the Badgers under Bret Bielema as he’s gone from 12-1 to 9-4 to 7-6 in three seasons in Madison. That being said, Wisconsin is certainly capable of matching its regular season win total from 2008 and surpassing it by a game or two. Lucky for Bucky Badger, UW misses Penn State on the schedule this year, and plays all 5 of the teams projected to finish towards the bottom of the Big Ten standings (at Indiana, Purdue, at Minnesota, at Northwestern, Michigan). Sure there are more road games than home games in that group of five, but those are all very winnable Big Ten matchups. Out of conference, Wisconsin draws Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford and Hawaii. I certainly hesitate taking UW in all four of those matchups after last season’s 36-35 win in OT at home over Cal Poly, but will give the program the benefit of the doubt and give them 4 wins. 5 + 4 = 9, so I’ll reluctantly take the over here (-115), although my gut tells me this looks a lot more like a push than any of the other lines.

Jeff: What do I know about Wisconsin this year? Nothing. I honestly know nothing about this team. But, in general I expect the Big Ten to be improved this year and maybe the Badgers will bounce back from the beatdown they suffered at the hands of Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl and I'll take the over (-115).

(What would have made this wager more interesting is if Wisconsin took advantage of the NCAA rule that allows teams that schedule a game at Hawaii to schedule a 13th game. It doesn’t appear that Wisconsin took advantage of this though with only 12 games on the schedule in 2009.)


Over/Under – 9 regular season wins for Penn State

Jeff: I love Penn State to head back to the Rose Bowl. OVER (-225)!

Brian: Jeff, you always love Penn State. The line here could be 10, 11 or even 12 games and I'd bet you'd still take the over on this one. I'm not as optimistic about Penn State as you are this year, especially if what they are saying is true about offensive line experience. The Nittany Lions only return 39 starts on the O line this year. Still, it's not like Penn State is straining themselves this year with a non-conference schedule composed of Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. From there, to think that Penn State will go less than 5-3 in the Big Ten is certainly a stretch. They have some tough games mixed in there, including at Northwestern on Halloween (don't laugh, I'm serious), Ohio State (November 7), and at Michigan State for the Land Grant Trophy. Still, I see Penn State at no less than 8-0 before coming to Evanston on Halloween, and for JoePa and the Lions to go 0-4 or 1-3 in November seems unfathomable at this point. Take the over (-225).


Over/Under – 9 1/2 regular season wins for Ohio State

Brian: Ohio State loses a lot of talent from last year’s 10-2 season. But then again, they are Ohio State ... in a thoroughly mediocre conference. As mentioned earlier, the Buckeyes miss Michigan State and Northwestern this season, not that they were much competition for OSU a year ago (the Buckeyes beat those two teams by a combined 90-17). The biggest tests for Ohio State will be USC at home on September 12 and at Penn State on November 7. Other than those two games, not much stands in the way of another 10-2 season and either a Rose Bowl or BCS at-large berth. With 7 home games and a virtual 8th home game in Cleveland (the Patriot Bowl – remember that? – against Toledo), the schedule sets up nicely for Ohio State to make another run at the Big Ten title and a National Championship Game berth. Take the over (-125).

Jeff: The Buckeyes have a guaranteed loss in the second week of the season when they play USC. After that at Penn State is another likely loss so in order for Ohio State to go under all they have to do is lose one more game somewhere on their schedule. I like the chances of Ohio State losing one more game somewhere and going UNDER (-105).


Brian: No lines were available for Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, and Northwestern as apparently not much is expected for these programs in 2009. But just for fun, how many games do you have my grad school Northwestern winning this season?

Jeff: 7 or 8 wins for your Northwestern Wildcats.

Over/Under: 09 College Football Preview Big XII

Next up on our preview of the BCS conferences is the Big XII. Last week, we took a look at the Pac 10. We are slowly working our way east, with the goal of wrapping up with the ACC and a preview of the Eagles 2009 football season dropping some time in mid-to-late August.

Last season, the Big XII (specifically the Big XII South) was at the center of controversy in the college football world, with Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech locked in a three-way tie atop the division. Oklahoma was selected to go to the Big XII Championship and later the BCS National Championship game based on tiebreaker rule #413 (highest in the BCS Standings).

Texas doesn't forget.

Can a three-way tie atop the Big XII South standings happen again this season? Who will emerge from the South - Texas or Oklahoma? Anyone not excited for this year's Cotton Bowl?


First up, Over/Under - 7 1/2 regular season wins for Missouri

Brian: Missouri certainly won’t have the offensive firepower we are used to the Tigers showcasing over the past two seasons, with the departure their offensive coordinator, receiver Jeremy Maclin, tight end Chase Coffman, and (oh yeah) the school’s all-time leading passer, Chase Daniels. To be successful on offense, the Tigers will probably have to rely on running the football with junior RB Derrick Washington (177 carries, 1,036 yards, 17 TDs) carrying most of the load. While I don’t expect the Tigers to again win the Big XII North this season, I don’t think they will fall off the map entirely either. The schedule is manageable, and the Tigers should easily go 3-1 or 4-0 out of conference with games vs. Bowling Green, Furman, the opener vs. Illinois in St. Louis and a trip to Nevada. I’ll assume for a minute that Missouri will again get past Illinois and Juice Williams in the opener, and from there the Tigers would only have to go 4-4 in the Big XII to hit the over. I’ll do just that and take the over (+180), but just barely, as there are enough pushovers in the Big XII (especially the North) to get to that 4 win mark. And by the way, missing Oklahoma and Texas Tech from the other side can’t hurt either. Tigers take down Baylor and Iowa State at home, and Colorado and K-State on the road to get to 4-4 in conference, finishing the season 8-4. Then they’ll get smoked in their bowl game to finish 8-5. Not bad for a “rebuilding” year, eh?

Jeff: The chances that Missouri will be 4-4 through their first 8 games is slim. Missouri plays Illinois and at Nevada out of conference and then plays Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas, and Colorado in their first four conference games. A 3-5 record at that point wouldn't shock me but even if Missouri is 4-4 they would have to run the table from there in and I just don't see that happening. Side wager Brian? I'll take the under (-220).


Over/Under - 8 regular season wins for Kansas

Jeff: Compared to Missouri, Kansas has a much more managable out of conference schedule even though I will be hoping that Duke knocks them off on September 19th. But then when it comes to in conference schedule, the Jayhawks draw the toughest possible opponents from the South division in Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Maybe they'll knock off Texas Tech this year but the other two are certain losses. The Big XII North race is going to come down to Colorado and Nebraska this year so I am going under (-160) here even though a push would not surprise me at all.

Brian: There is a ton of offensive production coming back for the Jayhawks in 2009. Senior QB Todd Reesing (32 TD), wide outs Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier (22 TDs combined) and senior running back Jake Sharp (12 TDs) will all be back. The biggest question for Kansas going into the season will be their defensive unit, which isn’t a great think in the pass-happy Big XII North. Still, KU should be able to coast through their first 6 games going into their October 24 matchup at home vs. Oklahoma. Oklahoma at home and a trip to Austin are likely losses, but even with a questionable defense, I don’t see many other losses on the schedule. Kansas should be able to go 5-3 in the weaker Big XII North and be in contention for the Big XII North crown. Also, the Jayhawks have the benefit of hosting Nebraska and playing Missouri on a neutral field (Kansas City). Take the over (+130).


Over/Under - 8 regular season wins for Texas Tech

Brian: Mike Leach will have a very tough time repeating Tech's 11-1 regular season performance from a year ago without Harrell-to-Crabtree. Some of the pieces are still there from a season ago (namely, the running game) but there just seems to be too many questions on defense and under center for me to get the Red Raiders up over 8 wins. Texas Tech is notorious for scheduling a weak slate of out of conference games, and this season is no exception. Even without Harrell or Crabtree, Tech should coast to 4-0 out of conference with home games against North Dakota, Rice and New Mexico and a short road trip to Houston. In Big XII play, I am finding it nearly impossible to get Tech to 5-3, considering they have to travel to Texas, to Nebraska, and to Oklahoma State. Tech could get to 3-5 with wins over Kansas State, Texas A&M and Baylor in the new Cowboys Stadium, but anything more than that is a stretch. The Big XII schedule does Tech no favors this season, as the Red Raiders miss Iowa State, Colorado and Missouri. Overall, I think it is 7-5 or 8-4 at best for the Pirate Captain, so I’ll take the under here (-180).

Jeff: When I look at Texas Tech's schedule I see 8 wins and 3 losses and I'll give them a toss up for their game at Nebraska. I'm going to take the over here (+150) but not put any real money on it because I see no way where the Red Raiders can get to 10 wins. They either barely cover or push this year.


Over/Under - 8 1/2 regular season wins for Nebraska

Jeff: Nebraska plays 3 out of conference gimmes this season, leaving them having to win 6 of their remaining conference games and one game at Virginia Tech. Nebraska catches a huge schedule break by not playing Texas and Oklahoma State, two of the top three teams in the conference this year. Oklahoma is the best team on their schedule and is a sure loss. Virginia Tech is also likely to beat them. In their remaining conference games, I can't see them going any better than 6-2 which would be good enough to head to the Big XII championship game but still only barely cover the over. This is a best case scenario though so I am going to go with the under (-120) without much confidence.

Brian: A cursory glance over the offensive and defensive units leaves a lot to be desired for Cornhusker fans. The first thing Pelini will have to do is find a successor for Joe Ganz under center. The favorite to take over the job - junior Zac Lee - has thrown exactly two passes in his collegiate career. Lee will be throwing to a new set of wide receivers and handing off to the junior Roy Helu Jr., who returns with 510 yards and 5 TDs in the last four regular-season games. The defense is a mix of young, inexperienced guys (the LB corp) and experienced, more senior units (the line anchored by NT Ndamukong Suh and the secondary). Still, the swagger seems to be back at Nebraska under Pelini, and hey, they're Nebraska. Their Big XII schedule sets up nicely with the Huskers avoiding both Oklahoma State and Texas, and with the exception of their return trip to Blacksburg and hosting Oklahoma, there isn't another sure loss on the schedule. Not to mention Nebraska plays in the weaker of the two divisions. I will optimistically predict that Nebraska wins 9 games this year (losses to Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, and either at Missouri or at Kansas). 6-2 is good enough to get Nebraska to the Big XII Championship Game in Arlington on December 5. Over (-110).


Over/Under - 9 regular season wins for Oklahoma State

Brian: Oklahoma State returns almost everyone on offense next season with a unit that finished Top 10 nationally in total yards and points. If any year is to be the Cowboys breakout season, this be the year. OSU actually went out and, you know, scheduled a decent BCS opponent out of conference in Georgia, but they should be able to catch Georgia in a bit of a down year. After the Bulldogs, the Cowboys should get to 4-0 in September with out of conference wins over Houston, Rice and Grambling (the 'Boys got all of their out of conference games at home this year. Weird.). Last season, the Cowboys played well in conference, finishing with a 5-3 record. Those 3 losses came against the three teams that tied for first atop the Big XII South standings, with OSU traveling to both Texas and Texas Tech. This season, they get both Texas and Texas Tech at home, and if they can convert one of those two losses from a year ago to a W, that gets them to 6-2 in Big XII play. I’ll take the over here (+105), but again just barely. It’s 10-2 (6-2 Big XII) for the Cowboys in 2009 and a Cotton Bowl win gets them to 11-2.

Jeff: Speaking of Georgia, I applaud them for scheduling three BCS conference opponents this season - Georgia Tech, Arizona State, and Oklahoma State. But I digress. Back to the Cowboys, it's hard to imagine that the line is set at 9 and they have Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas Tech on their schedule and we're both going to take the over here. Oklahoma State will easily get to 8 wins and probably easily a ninth when they start the season with a inexperienced Georgia team at home. After eight wins a ninth is highly likely as is a tenth, but figure an upset in there somewhere and it might take a win against either Texas or Oklahoma for them to get there but that is a possibility as I see it. OK St is the only team in the Big 12 this year that will be able to compete with Texas and Oklahoma. Over (+105).


Over/Under - 10 regular season wins for Oklahoma

Jeff: Why would you take the under here? You really think Stoops will only win 9 games with a Heisman trophy winner? Over (+125).

Brian: It is tempting to take the under here. The season opener vs. BYU in the new Cowboys Stadium will be a test (there is some precedence for a Mountain West team to take down OU early in the season, see: TCU), as well as their end of September road trip to Miami (but likely a win), the Cotton Bowl and their trip to Lincoln on November 7. However, there is simply way too much talent on both sides of the ball for me to think that Oklahoma will lose any more than 1 regular season game. I’ll reluctantly take the over here (+125), but it wouldn't surprise me if the Sooners push or even drop more than two games for the under.


Over/Under - 10 regular season wins for Texas

Brian: Smart money is on the over here, with expectations higher than ever for Texas to challenge for a spot in the BCS National Championship Game. On this one, I’m going to go with the people and take the over (-155) with Texas. Their out of conference schedule is a snoozer (UL Monroe, at Wyoming, UTEP and UCF) and from there I then need the Longhorns to go 7-1 or 8-0 in the Big XII for the over. Their toughest matchups early appear to be the Red River Shootout vs. Oklahoma on October 17, and their trip to Oklahoma State on Halloween. Hard to imagine Texas dropping both games to Sooner State foe, so I’ll predict a split or 2-0 against OU and OSU. Besides, Texas has never lost to Oklahoma State under Mack Brown (11-0) and Texas beat Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl a season ago. I fully expect Texas to be in contention for a BCSNCG berth and I would be foolish to think they will get there with anything less than a 12-0 or 11-1 record. Over (-155)!

Jeff: Less than 11 wins for Texas this year would be a huge disappointment. As big of a disappointment as them playing Central Florida during BC's bye week so that potential trip to Austin for a game would be to see a blowout. Over (-155).


Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, Colorado and Texas A&M sit this one out. Jeff and I largely agree on most of the Big XII South lines and disagree on nearly every team in the Big XII North.

Your thoughts, southwest Eagles?

Over/Under: 09 College Football Preview Pac-10

Brian: Today - since we are in the dead of summer with not much BC news to be had - we start in on previewing the upcoming college football season (66 days and counting!) in a game of Over/Under.

Borrowing from the Florida State blog Tomahawk Nation's For Entertainment Purposes Only series of posts, we take a look at one site's futures odds for regular season wins (regular season wins do not include conference championship games or bowl games). We will preview each of the 6 BCS conferences over the next 6 weeks to gear you up for college football (I keep telling myself it's right around the corner!)

First up of the 6 BCS conference, the Pac 10 - less Washington, Washington State and Stanford, where future odds for regular season wins are currently unlisted. We'll work our way west to east, finishing up with the ACC. We'll check back at the end of the year to see how we stacked up to with the results from the 2009 season.

Finally, a disclaimer. This exercise is for fun only. BC Interruption in no way endorses gambling.


First up, Over/Under - 6 1/2 regular season wins for Arizona

Brian: The big question with the Wildcats this year will be who is starting under center. Sounds a bit familiar. Arizona will have to replace Senior Willie Tuitama who threw 67 touchdown passes in his four years on campus. Still, except for questions about the QB and the offensive line, Arizona returns much of the talent that took down BYU 31-21 in last year's Las Vegas Bowl. That team finished 7-5, 5-4 Pac 10, and it is hard to imagine Arizona losing more than one game from a year ago. So I'll take the slightly pessimistic outlook on Arizona's season, go under (-120) on this one and give 'Zona 6 wins on the year, which should be good enough for another bowl berth. Specifically, the Cats will win vs. Central Michigan, Northern Arizona, at Washington, Stanford, UCLA, and Washington State.

Jeff: Arizona will not make it through their non-conference schedule without a loss. The questions is will they lose one or both of the games between Central Michigan and Iowa. If Arizona does lose to Central Michigan, this might be bad news for Eagles fans as the Chippewas will already have a win at a BCS conference opponent going into their matchup against the Eagles. But as for over/under, I like the under (-120) here without much hesitation as a 6 win season is good for the Wildcats. Washington and Washington State can't be the gimmes they were last year.


Over/Under - 6 1/2 regular season wins for Arizona State

Jeff: Last year was full of disappointment for Arizona State. Despite winning four conference games, they only won five overall. This year the team will rebound and at least has 2 out of conference gimmes before heading to Georgia and getting their first loss of the season. Then conference play sets up that they will be favored in a least four games and should be able to get an upset victory in there somewhere to get them to 7 wins on the season. Over (-120).

Brian: If Arizona State doesn't get back above .500 this season, I have to think Dennis Erickson will be on the hot seat if he turns in another 5-7 or 6-6 season. Arizona State is a team that is very similar to Boston College - all defense, no offense. The defense should keep them in games, and its hard to imagine them winning less than 6 games with built-in wins against Idaho State, UL Monroe, at Washington State and Washington. I think Arizona State can find three more wins in there between at UCLA, Arizona, at Stanford and Oregon State at home so I will go over (-120). 7+ wins for the Sun Devils this season.


Over/Under - 9 regular season wins for Cal

Brian: Expectations are high in Berkeley as the Bears return Pac-10 rushing leader Jahvid Best, who rushed for over 1,500 yards last season. You may remember Best from his cameo as Slimer from Ghostbusters during last year's game at Maryland. The QB position is less cloudy than it was a year ago, too, as Kevin Riley looks to take the top spot on the depth chart. Cal should breeze through their non-conference slate of Maryland, Eastern Washington and at Minnesota, and to go over, I'd have to think that Cal is going to coast through the Pac 10 sched and go either 7-2 or 8-1. Even though Cal gets USC at home this season, I still count that as a loss as well as the late September trip to Autzen. My guess is Cal will drop another game that it shouldn't ... possibly getting tripped up in the desert at Arizona State or at Stanford in the Big Game. So I will go with the very unmanly push and say the Cal Bears win 9 games. I'm not touching this one.

Jeff: While the Bears will be favored in their three non-conference games, I do not expect them to defeat both Maryland and Minnesota. Then once conference play begins, you have to consider USC a loss as well as one or two games among games at Oregon, Oregon State, and at UCLA. Throw in another Pac-10 game upset and I'm taking the under (+125) confidently.


Over/Under - 8 regular season wins for Oregon

Jeff: Taking Oregon to go over here is THE pick of all the Pac-10 teams. Oregon looked good at times last year and especially in their bowl game against Oklahoma State. The Ducks' defense can't be any worse. They have a potentially tough out of conference schedule with Utah and Boise State but after they get past those two games, as I suspect they will, it's smooth sailing from there in. Over. Over. Over (+152).

Brian: The Ducks are highly ranked preseason, with some publications having them as high as #13. Still, in order to go over I would have to think that the Ducks could match their regular season win total from last season. I have to think that the transition from Coach Bellotti to Coach Chip Kelly will not go as smoothly as some people may think. The Ducks also didn't do themselves any favors with their out of conference schedule, having to play BCS Busters Utah and at Boise State on the Blue Turf. If Oregon can go 2-1 out of conference, I can see them going 7-2 or 8-1 in conference, but I have my reservations. Especially if the junior-laden Ducks get tripped up by both Utah and Boise State. I'll go over (+152), but just barely, and it certainly won't come as easy as Jeff is alluding to. I'll give the Ducks 9 wins this season.


Over/Under 7 1/2 regular season wins for Oregon State?

Brian: I am going to go under (-110) here. While the two-headed Rodgers offensive monster should be formidable (Jacquizz rushed for 1,253 last season and James caught 51 balls for 607 yards and 4 TDs), the Beavers will have to replace much of their defensive unit. The Pac-10 schedule doesn't cut Oregon State any breaks this year, with trips to Arizona State, California, USC and Oregon all potential losses. Throw one more loss in there - say, September 19 hosting Big East champion Cincinnati - and you've got your under. Oregon State will certainly be bowling, but I see 6-7 wins this season instead of 8-9.

Jeff: Oregon State had a major letdown at the end of last season by being embarrassed by Oregon when they had a chance to head to the Rose Bowl, but I am going to go against Brian and say that they will get through their non-conference games even though a road trip to Las Vegas worries me more than Cincinnati at home. From there I fully expect five conference wins and will take the over (-120), even though I'd be surprised if they cover by any more than a 1/2 game.


Over/Under 6 regular season wins for UCLA?

Jeff: If I were Brian here, I'd push because UCLA has 6 wins and a bottom level bowl written all over them but I'm not Brian so I will instead take the over (-180) and hope that Neuheisel's system and players start clicking a year earlier than expected and the Bruins get to 8 or 9 wins.

Brian: Is the football monopoly over in Southern California? Probably not, as Neuheisel stares down another year of rebuilding in Westwood. Six wins on the season would be an improvement of two wins after last year's pathetic 4-8 season. However, I, too, will go out on a limb on this one and go over (-180). The Bruins have a VERY favorable 2009 schedule with home games against San Diego State, Kansas State, and Washington, and road trips to Tennessee, Arizona and Washington State. I'm banking on the fact that there's a seventh win in there somewhere. Can the Bruins shock the Pac-10 and take down USC, Oregon or Oregon State? Probably not. But more likely, Neuheisel and UCLA could grab their 7th win at Stanford, at Oregon State or vs. California. Don't disappoint me, Neuheisel. If you do, I'll recoup my losses by winning your NCAA Tournament Pool next season.


Last one, Over/Under 10 1/2 regular season wins for USC?

Brian: Last, but certainly not least, the USC Trojans. An over here would basically have me pegging the Trojans as another BCS National Championship Game contender with an 11-1 or 12-0 perfect regular season. Pete Carroll has gotten the Trojans to 11+ wins (including bowl games) in each of the last 7 seasons, but I foresee them only getting to 10 regular seasons wins this year. I'm taking the under here. The Trojans always seem to find a way to lose to a Pac-10 opponent they have no business losing to (Oregon State 2008, Stanford 2007), which knocks them out of the BCSNCG. I imagine this trend will continue. Either that, or the Trojans could very well drop their game at Autzen on October 31. Their early season trip to Columbus looms large. The talent is of course always there, but Carroll and the Trojans will be breaking in a new QB under center. I'm giving USC a 10-2 regular season record - which of course a disappointment in LA - and going with the under (-140).

Jeff: The big game for USC is at Ohio State the second week of the season and I expect them to dominate Big Ten competition once again, new quarterback aside. When it comes to USC, take the over (+110) until they prove otherwise. It's money in the bank.


What did we screw up, Left Coast Eagles and Pac 10 prognosticators? Your thoughts?

Over/Under: Spring Game and NFL Draft

It's been a few months since we played a game of Over/Under, so let's get to it. We discuss this weekend's spring game and the NFL Draft.


Over/Under - 4,162 people at the Boston College spring game (Duke got 4,162 to Wallace Wade last weekend)

Jeff: According to the LA Times we had 250 more people at our spring game than Duke did last year. But there seems to be some buzz about the Duke Football program which won't allow Greg Paulus to play as the Blue Devils quarterback because he isn't good enough. This weekend I am going under and I think BC will get about 3,500 again. In the south going to a spring game is a Spring Saturday well spent but in Boston people would probably look at you funny.

Brian: I will reluctantly go under here too. There isn't as much hype around this year's BC football team as in years past. Sure, fans want to see what Spaz and his new staff can do, and may be mildly interested in the quarterback competition, the triple-headed, crowded backfield, and/or who is going to clog the running lanes, but there is no headlining offensive star on this team to really draw Eagles fans' attention. Add in the fact that both the Celtics and the Bruins are in the playoffs, the Sox have started playing and that the spring game is the same weekend as the NFL draft, and I don't think BC will crack the 4k mark this weekend. Sadly. Under.


Over/Under - 100 yards for any one of the three running backs (Haden, Ninja, Smith) in this weekend's spring game

Brian: I think there is a very strong possibility that one of our three backs will rush for 100+ yards on Saturday. Last year's spring game saw little to no rushing attack from the Eagles (Mulrooney leading rusher for 33 yards?). Haden and Ninja, in particular, have been putting up much better numbers in our first two intrasquad scrimmages. While the defense tends to usually dominate the offense in the spring, this year our backs won't have to navigate through 650 pounds of Raji/Brace clogging up the rushing lanes. And with a quicker, no-huddle tempo on offense, I think we'll get more plays and more rushes in this spring. I'm optimistic one of these three goes over 100 so I'll go over.

Jeff: The only chance of one of these guys rushing for 100+ is if they break one run for 65+. There is no chance of that happening. I'm going way under.


Over/Under - August 15 Spaziani names a starting QB

Jeff: I think this is an easy where I am going to take the under. Spaz is not going to enter the summer without having named a #1 QB. We will know who that is either after the game Saturday or next week sometime. Fortunately for Spaz and the coaching staff we open up against Northestern so getting the starting QB right for game 1 is not critical. The guy who sees second half action in that game could end up starting the next. Who knows right now, but I do not envision a situation, other than injury, where Davis does not see any snaps in our season opener.

Brian: Over. A lack of quarterback competition over the summer could breed complacency, and Spaz will want these three guys hungry for the starting job. I'm feeling more and more like Boek could actually get the starting job because I don't see Davis or Tuggle pulling away early. If my memory serves me correctly, Crane was named the starter in late August last year. Back in 2004, Paul Petersen was named the starter as late as August 23 of that year. I think it is in Spaz's best interest to keep this competition open until much later this summer and will say that Spaz picks a start after August 15. Over.


Over/Under - Raji picked with the (unpushable) 5 1/2th pick in the first round of this weekend's NFL Draft

Brian: I am going to go under here. I'm hearing a lot of experts - including ESPN's Todd "McDreamy" McShea - predicting that Raji will be drafted #5 by the Cleveland Browns. I would say Raji in the top 5 is slightly optimistic given that Georgia's Matt Stafford, Wake Forest's Aaron Curry and now - out of nowhere - USC's Mark Sanchez appear to be locks for the Top 5. Sports Illustrated has since redacted the "Raji tests positive for marijuana" headline ("Redact it! REDACT IT!!") and when its all said and done, I don't think that non-story will hurt his draft stock at this point. Mel "The Hair" Kiper is not as optimistic as McShea, and has Raji going #9 to the Green Bay Packers. So I will say under but wouldn't be shocked if Raji falls past 5. I would, however, be shocked if Raji falls out of the top 10.

Jeff: You and I must not read the same articles and listen to the same sports shows because Aaron Curry has been talked about as a potential first defensive player taken for as long as I can remember NFL 2009 draft talk. On the Raji subject though, now that the alleged failed drug test thing is cleared up I am going under without hesitation and expect him to go to the Browns or a team that trades up for him.

Brian: You must not be reading what I wrote Jeff because I said that Stafford, Curry and Sanchez are LOCKS for the Top 5.


Over/Under - Brace going in the second round of this weekend's NFL Draft

Jeff: This is the easily pushable question so I will go with a push here and say Brace will go in the second round. Legitimate DTs are few and far between on draft day and Brace is a legit NFL prospect so I would imagine he will fill a team's need on the first day.

Brian: The answer here is indeed a push. From everything I'm hearing, Brace will go anywhere from 30-40 in the draft which makes him an early to middle second round selection. Could Brace pull a Kiwi and get scooped up with the final pick in the first round? Possibly, although I don't really see this happening. So I'll begrudgingly agree with Jeff and go with the very un-manly push on this one.


Last one, Over/Under - Purvis being drafted at all this weekend ...

Brian: ESPN.com's Heather Dinich has Purvis on her list of potential late round ACC picks. My heart says that Purvis will be drafted this weekend, but my head doesn't really think it's going to happen. Purvis had a monster junior year with Matt Ryan under center only to see his numbers and his productivity decrease dramatically last year. Purvis went from 553 yards and 4 TDs in his junior year to a mere 176 yards receiving and 0 scores in 2008. I think this is going to hurt Purvis' draft stock more than anything - he just didn't see the ball much at all last season. Our only recent experience with having an Eagles TE get drafted is Sean Ryan, who went in the 5th round, 144th overall in the 2004 draft. Sean Ryan put up monster numbers at BC after moving from DE his sophomore season (75 catches, 950 yards, 12 TDs). While I personally think Purvis is more than capable to play in the league, I unfortunately don't think a team will take a chance on him. Would be fun to see Purvis become Mr. Irrelevant, but my gut tells me he won't get drafted. So I'll go over?

Jeff: I have no idea on this one. I'll go with my old standby logic of assuming you are going to be wrong and I'll take the under that he does get drafted.

Over/Under: Hoops Forecast

The Eagles got a much needed win last night, coming back from a 16 point first half deficit to beat the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, 76-67. We take a look at the rest of this season with a game of over/under.


Brian: My boy, Joe Trapani, finished last night 1 rebound shy of his seventh double-double on the season.

Over/Under - 4 more double-doubles for Joe Trapani on the season

Jeff: There are plenty more opportunities for him with the rest of ACC play, the ACC tourney and the NCAA or NIT tournament. However, just as he fell one board short last night, that will happen several more times and I don't think he will have more than 4 more double-doubles so I'm going under.

Brian: Over! Trapani has emerged as the team's second leading scorer behind Rice, averaging 13.7 points per game. So points are not going to be the issue. The struggle will be to pull down 10 boards a night. He has already missed double-doubles by 1 board three times this season (Central Connecticut, Harvard and Maryland), so I don't see many more games the rest of the way where he falls just short. Also, three of his 6 double-doubles have come in ACC play, so he has shown he can get it done in conference as well. I'm going over on this one. Trap tallies at least 5 double-doubles the rest of the way.

Jeff: Emerged? He's been the second leading scorer all season, no?

Brian: Emerged as in Rakim Sanders being the de facto #2 scorer in the preseason. And emerged as in I don't remember hearing much about Trapani in Raj's preseason basketball preview!

JT is now joining the likes of Brian Ross, Nate Doornekamp, and John Oates as tall white guys at BC who have fallen in love with the 3 pt line. As a transfer he has had a season to get acclimated with the flex offense, and Skinner will be forced to line him up at the PF position due to our lack of depth.

Trapani has emerged as a much more complete player than those three guys he was compared to in the preseason.


Over/Under - 1.5 games Tyrese Rice fouls out of this year.

Brian: Under. Rice has fouled out only 1 time this season - against Harvard. He has racked up four fouls in a game 5 times. Both he and Skinner know how valuable it is that Rice stay on the floor. I can see Rice fouling out in one more game, but I don't think he'll foul out more than 1 game so I am going under. The only wildcard I see is if Rice has 4 and he has to foul late in the second half if the Eagles are trailing by a few points, but I'll stick with my under prediction.

Jeff: I'll go by my old standby of assuming you are wrong and therefore go OVER. Rice can easily foul out twice just from committing some fouls in garbage time while we are trailing.

Brian: Great analysis there!


Over/Under - 1.5 more wins on our current 3 game winning streak

Jeff: This is a tough one. I want to say over and I think it will go over if we can defeat the Hokies on Saturday night. The second game against Virginia should be very winnable. You know I am very optimistic on this year's basketball team so I'm saying over, but very cautiously.

Brian: Interestingly, kenpom has this backwards. His predictor has the Eagles beating the Hokies at home this Saturday 73-70 but losing to the Cavaliers on the road next Wednesday. I guess some sort of home-court advantage is at play here? I'll also cautiously go over. Our game in Blacksburg was certainly winnable and Virginia is not playing good basketball of late (having lost their last 4 ACC games).


Over/Under - 6th seed in ACC tournament for the Eagles

Brian: The way this is shaping up, to finish 5th or higher, the Eagles would likely have to jump both Florida State and Virginia Tech in the standings. I'm going to assume for a second that Wake Forest, Duke, North Carolina and Clemson (in that order) finish with the top 4 spots in the conference, earning a first-round bye.

I also think that the Eagles will be able to beat both Florida State and Virginia Tech at home. Now, while the Hokies are sitting pretty at 4-1, they have their toughest stretch of ACC basketball ahead of them - Clemson, at BC, Florida State, at Clemson, Duke, North Carolina and at Florida State. Being a very young squad, I'm going to again assume that the Hokies can only pull out one of those games which would give them at best a 9-7 conference record.

Florida State is only 3-2 in the ACC so far and has tough games coming up as well. Virginia Tech x2, North Carolina, at Clemson, at Wake Forest, Miami, at BC, Clemson, at Duke. I'm going to predict they finish 8-8 in conference.

Since I think the Eagles can beat the 'Noles, and I see the Eagles finishing 8-8, these two teams would likely tie for the 6th seed with the Eagles winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. I think the season will wrap up as:

1. Duke (13-3 or 14-2)
2. Wake Forest (13-3 or 12-4)
3. North Carolina (12-4)
4. Clemson (10-6)
5. Virginia Tech (9-7)
6. Boston College (8-8)
7. Florida State (8-8)
8. Miami (FL) (8-8 or 7-9)

Therefore, I will go with the very un-manly Push and say the Eagles earn the 6th seed in the ACC Tournament.

Jeff: Your assumptions are certainly reasonable and pushing here is a likely scenario given what we know now but the great thing about sports is that you never know what is actually going to happen. I see the Hokies potentially falling past the 5 spot and the Eagles finishing 9-7, with outside chances at 10-6 or 8-8. Given the conference being very top heavy. 8-8 is probably still good enough to finish 6 as you say, but I'll once again be the BC basketball optimist and say the Eagles grab the 6th seed or better. It is also very possible that Wake goes on a slide and falls past a top 4 seed and a first round BYE. The same holds true for Clemson but believe it or not, Clemson is now the team that has done it before and has more experience so I think Clemson is more likely to remain in the top 4 between them and Wake. No chance Duke or UNC fall past #4.

Brian: Letting your Tiger stripes show! I say 0% chance Wake falls below Clemson. Wake will only lose once or twice more in ACC play (against Duke). Clemson is already 1 game back of Wake in the standings and the Tigers still have to play Duke and Wake a second time in their regular season finale.


Last one, Over/Under - 6.5 ACC teams making the NCAA tournament

Jeff: I'm going over here. North Carolina, Duke, Wake, Clemson and Virginia Tech are locks to make the tournament unless something drastic happens. Boston College, Florida State, and Miami should currently be getting serious consideration. I say two of those if not all three will make it and that get the ACC to 7 or 8 without another team in the conference making a late season/ACC tournament run.

Brian: I am going with the unpopular under pick here. I believe the ACC will only get 6 bids into the tournament. I see Miami (FL) sliding the rest of the way out. I count 5 more losses on the Hurricane's ACC regular season schedule which would put them with a relatively undesirable 7-9 record in conference.

In your group of three teams under consideration, I only see room for one of those teams in the tournament. I think it will come down to either Boston College or Florida State as the 6th and final team to come out of the ACC. All three teams will be hovering around 21-10 to end the regular season and whichever team makes the furthest run in the ACC championship will ultimately get the nod. Unfortunately, by my estimation BC is in the worst position of the three given some bad/quality losses (at Saint Louis, vs. Harvard) and a much weaker SOS. Both Miami and Florida State don't have any bad losses on the season. Florida State has some quality out of conference wins against Cincinnati, California and in-state rival Florida, while Miami has a good out-of-conference win at Kentucky.

Over/Under: BC-Wake Forest

We preview this weekend's crucial Atlantic Division game with Wake Forest with a game of over/under.


Over/Under - 100 yards rushing for Montel Harris for the third consecutive game

Brian: Wake Forest is currently ranked 27th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 118.0 yards per game on the ground through 10 games. The only back that has rushed for over 100 yards all season was Navy's Eric Kettani who ripped off 175 yards on the ground against the Deacons defense. Most games Wake's defense doesn't allow more than 100 yards combined. The flipside is Harris has rushed for over 100 yards in his last two games (Notre Dame and Florida State) and has rushed for 100 yards in four games this year (add Rhode Island and Central Florida). While I think we will have a similar offensive gameplan in the Wake game as we did last weekend at Florida State, I am going to go slightly under on this one. I'll say Harris gets a fair share of yardage on the ground – say around 75-85 yards – but doesn't eclipse the century mark. Under.

Jeff: What will it take for Montel Harris to have a 100 yards on the ground against Wake Forest? Harris needs to break a big run and/or BC needs to have the lead in the fourth quarter and be running the ball to seal the victory. I think the chances of BC having a good lead in the fourth are good and you never know if Harris might break one so I will say Montel does have a 100 yards rushing Saturday. Over!


Over/Under - 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for Chris Crane this weekend

Jeff: I'll say OVER! I'm saying over though only because this is touchdown-to-interception ratio and not touchdown-to-turnover. This is a very optimistic over because Chris Crane can play well and still throw one pick and no touchdowns or one and one and push.

Brian: Crane's touchdown-to-interception ratio doesn't seem to have any correlation with the outcome of the Eagles games this season. When Crane has less than a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Eagles are 2-2. When he throws for over 1:1, the Eagles are 2-1. And when we throws for exactly a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, we are 3-0 (Florida State, Rhode Island, Kent State). So I'll play it conservative and push on this one. Crane throws just as many touchdown passes as he does interceptions this weekend, and the Eagles win in Winston-Salem.


Over/Under - 3.5 field goals made by Wake Forest and BC kickers combined on Saturday

Brian: The bad news is that Sam Swank is back for the Demon Deacons after missing the last 6 games. Swank is the school's career leading scorer and one of the best kickers in the country. When Swank was healthy this season, he averaged 2.5 field goals made per game over Wake's first four games. On the other sideline, Aponavicius is averaging 1.0 field goal per game over the Eagles first ten games. But there has been 4 games where Aponavicius hasn't hit a field goal (the most costly of those games being Clemson). I'll say Aponavicius knocks in one this Saturday and Swank hits a pair, but am going under 3.5 as four field goals seems a little steep.

Jeff: 4 field goals in any game is a lot but certainly not unheardof and with the quality of BC's defense and Sam Swank's leg, you would think there would be at least a couple of Wake field goals. The key is how many field goals BC will kick. The planets aligned for Steve to knock in two last week so this week the planets must have drifted apart at least slightly meaning Aponavicius is maxing out at 1 FG make. If Swank hits three I'll be a little surprised, but, Brian is terrible at this game and since he went under I am certainly going OVER!


Brian: We've now seen Brandon Robinson and Billy Flutie throw a pass on the reverse, albeit unsuccessfully. We haven't seen Dominique Davis hit the field since the Rhode Island game ...

Over/Under - 1 Eagle completion from someone other than Chris Crane in our last two regular season games

Jeff: In the final two games there is certainly a chance that someone other than Crane completes a pass. It can either come off a trick play or it can come from a Chris Crane injury, or it can come from Dominique Davis getting some playing time in mop up duty after we are up three touchdowns at Wake Saturday. However, someone completing a pass is still only a push and I'm not going to take the easy way out and push so I am going under. Chris Crane will be the only QB to complete a pass for BC in the next two games. This is not what I want, but it is what I think will happen. The chances to insert Davis for a series have passed. We need Crane playing every snap. At this point all our eggs are in Chris Crane's basket.

Brian: With Megwa out for the season, I liked getting Brandon Robinson and Rich Gunnell more involved in the offense with end-arounds, trick plays and reverses. I think we'll see more of the same in our last two games as Logan will be opportunistic in his play calling. I am optimistically going to go over on this one. We will steal a play from Wake Forest's playbook with a gimmicky WR completion this Saturday, and will get an unconventional completion from someone else in the Maryland game – be it a fake punt pass or an end-around. You don't have to be accurate … you just have to throw it up for Momah to come down with it.


Over/Under - 1.5 Eagles wins on the gridiron to finish the regular season

Jeff: This can certainly go either way but I am predicted the Eagles get it done and make it to the ACC Championship game. OVER!

Brian: This is a tough question. While I am optimistic, I also have some reservations about these last two games. The Wake Forest game is always interesting and Jim Grobe's offenses always seem to give the Eagles fits. Maryland has been playing well but I'm a bit more confident about that game as the Eagles will enjoy the home field advantage. I will agree with you Jeff and go over, although I'm not going to go out and buy a non-refundable plane ticket to Tampa just yet.


Over/Under - 1.5 Eagles wins in the Preseason NIT at Madison Square Garden

Brian: Our semifinal game in the Preseason NIT is agaist Purdue, who is ranked #10 in the nation and straight up smacked around its opponents in the North Region. Purdue is led by sophomore guard E'Twaun Moore (averaging 16.3 points, 5.7 rebounds per game). While I am ever the BC optimist, I don't think that the Eagles can get past Purdue in the Garden. I hope to be in attendance, but I am not expecting an Eagles victory in the semifinal. Under.

Jeff: I would not be terribly surprised if BC gets past Purdue. I think Purdue is a little overrated this year. They have a bunch of players returning after having a decent season in the Big Ten last year but the Big Ten in basketball is similar to the Big Ten in football the last two years in that it has seen better days. After the Boilermakers, the Eagles would play the winner of Arizona/UAB vs. Oklahoma and I am just not going to predict a Boston College victory in that game. So I will go under here as well.


Brian: Last one, a bit off topic, clearing up the ACC bowl picture ...

Over/Under - 1.5 more wins for (Jeff's) Clemson Tigers

Jeff: I have been on the road a lot yesterday and today listening to Columbia sports talk radio and Gamecock fans talk about Spurrier and their dismal performance in Gainesville on Saturday. Every radio host and seemingly every caller predicted Clemson to win the Clemson vs. South Carolina game in two weeks. I agree with them there. The only question then is can Clemson win Saturday at Virginia. Clemson is favored by a field goal Saturday so I will hesitantly go with that and say OVER. Clemson will go bowling this year!

Brian: A Lee Corso-esque "Not so fast my friend!" Clemson is not going bowling this year. I am surprised that Virginia is a home underdog in this Saturday's ACC matchup. Virginia has some impressive home wins this year in conference. They shut out Maryland 31-0, survived North Carolina in overtime, and pushed Miami (FL) to overtime. The Cavaliers are 4-2 at home this season, with their only losses coming to USC and Miami (FL) in overtime. Clemson is a mere 1-3 on the road / neutral site, and we all know the one win Clemson was able to get on the road. And don't forget, the Cavaliers are still playing for an outside shot at playing in Tampa representing the Coastal Division, while the Tigers are merely playing for a bowl berth.

Road wins in the ACC are hard to come by, and if the Tigers can somehow get past the Cavaliers, I see them falling to South Carolina in the finale. South Carolina has a week to lick their wounds from their beatdown in the Swamp and will regroup nicely. The Gamecock defense will be too much for the Clemson offensive line, and the Garnet & Black win the battle for South Carolina for only the second time in seven seasons.

(Photo credit: SI Vault)